Dividend Discount Model (DDM) – Common Stock
This movie/ video describes
the application of the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) to valuate common stocks.
Please refer to the basics (Valuation
of Preferred Stock) first. The following is a part of the transcript. This
video requires Flash 8 or above.
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We already mentioned that DDM is
nothing but calculating the present value of the future dividends a share
holder going to receive. It is again very important to clarify the cash flow
amount, timing and discount rate relevant to the stock. For preferred stock,
the cash flow is almost deterministic and it is also much easier to determine
the discount rate (e.g. we can set it to be similar to or lower than that of
the highest grade bond of the company).
To valuate a common stock, the
concept is the same. However, it is more difficult. It is because, first, the
dividend payout is not certain and, second, the required rate of return is more
difficult to determine.
So, since this is just another cash
flow and present value problem, we definition can use the sum we used for
preferred stock, but change the D’s to individual values (D1, D2…)
D1/(1+k) +
D2/(1+k)^2 + D3/(1+k)^3+…+D10000/(1+k)^10000+…
where k is the appropriate discount rate.
This change takes into the account
that the dividend to be received is, unlike in preferred stock, not constant.
So again we are not going to find
the price by calculating infinite number of terms. We will first look into
another simplified situation, where Dn’s are
related. In this situation, we assume the company is growing at constant rate
and assume the dividend to be paid is also growing at constant rate (g%
annually), the equation becomes:
D0*(1+g)/(1+k) + D0((1+g)/(1+k))^2 +
D0((1+g)/(1+k))^3+…+D0*((1+g)/(1+k))^10000+…
Again, this is a geometric series
and the sum can be simplified into
P = D0 * (1+g) / (k-g) = D1 / (k-g)
Please see the videos for details.
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