Diversification and Efficient Frontier

This movie/ video uses Excel to demonstrate how diversification helps reduce overall risk, continued by the concept of efficient frontiers. The following is a part of the transcript.

 

 

Assume there are only 2 equities in the market, A and B. A has expected return EA =4% and B has expected return EB = 8%. Their risks (standard deviation) are sA = 9% and sB = 15%. Therefore, the maximum return is 8% with pretty high risk (15%) or the minimum risk is 9% with pretty low return (4%). Is there anyway, we can either reduce the risk while keeping the maximum return or increases the minimum return with minimized risk?

 

The answer is no to the first question and yes to the second question.

 

For the yes part, we can achieve by diversification, i.e. investing both assets at certain proportion. First, let’s assume that the correlation of A and B is 0.2. So, we can compute the expected return of the portfolio according to the following equation

 

E(portfolio) = WA*EA + WB*EB

 

where WA and WB are the weightings of A and B in the portfolio.

 

Then we may compute the risk of the portfolio (as s) using:

 

s (portfolio) = sqrt((WA* sA)2 + (WB* sB)2+2*WA*WB* sA*sB*r)

                                                                                                   

where r is the correlation between A and B.

 

Then we can plot the E(portfolio) vs. s (portfolio). You see that by diversification (adding B into the A), we are able to increase the expect return but with lower risk than investing A alone! Why is that? This is because when A is reduced and B is added, the decrease in the risk contributed by A is faster than the increase in the risk contributed by B. And the increase in the return contributed by B is faster than the decrease in the return contributed by A. Therefore, we are able to achieve lower risk with higher return.

 

How much can this be reduced depends on the correlation between A and B also. You can see that the diversification is the most significant when r = -1.

 

In any market, there are finite number of equities (though a lot!), so by figuring out the return and risk of each equity and correlation between each pair of equity, we can plot a tradeoff curve like this!

 

Now, we can easily form the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier is just the points on this trade-off curve that give the maximum return for a given risk.

3 Comments

SomashekharAugust 7th, 2007 at 8:39 am

Small correction to be made on Sigma Calculation ————————————————- B$4 instead of B4

SQRT((A6*B$3)^2 + (B6*C$3)^2 + 2* A6*B6*B$3*C$3*B4)

must be corrected to

SQRT((A6*B$3)^2 + (B6*C$3)^2 + 2* A6*B6*B$3*C$3*B$4)

AdministratorAugust 7th, 2007 at 11:03 am

Hi Somashekhar,

Do you mean when the video reaches 03:50?

If so, what we used was

SQRT((A6*B$3)^2 + (B6*C$3)^2 + 2* A6*B6*B$3*C$3*$B$4)

i.e. $B$4 instead of B4. The reason we used $B$4 is because we have to fix the row and column.

For this part, it should be correct. Thanks for your comment!!

Vicky BahlNovember 30th, 2008 at 10:33 pm

very useful explanation – the use of MS Excel is outstanding! Thanks!

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