Diversification and Efficient Frontier
This movie/ video uses
Excel to demonstrate how diversification helps reduce overall risk, continued
by the concept of efficient frontiers. The following is a part of the transcript.
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Assume there are only 2 equities in
the market, A and B. A has expected return EA =4% and B has expected
return EB = 8%. Their risks (standard deviation) are sA = 9% and sB = 15%. Therefore, the maximum
return is 8% with pretty high risk (15%) or the minimum risk is 9% with pretty
low return (4%). Is there anyway, we can either reduce the risk while keeping
the maximum return or increases the minimum return with minimized risk?
The answer is no to the first
question and yes to the second question.
For the yes part, we can achieve by
diversification, i.e. investing both assets at certain proportion. First,
let’s assume that the correlation of A and B is 0.2. So, we can compute
the expected return of the portfolio according to the following equation
E(portfolio) = WA*EA
+ WB*EB
where WA
and WB are the weightings of A and B in the portfolio.
Then we may
compute the risk of the portfolio (as s) using:
s (portfolio) = sqrt((WA* sA)2 + (WB* sB)2+2*WA*WB* sA*sB*r)
where r is the correlation between A and B.
Then we can plot the E(portfolio) vs. s (portfolio). You see that by diversification (adding
B into the A), we are able to increase the expect return but with lower risk
than investing A alone! Why is that? This is because
when A is reduced and B is added, the decrease in the risk contributed by A is
faster than the increase in the risk contributed by B. And the increase in the
return contributed by B is faster than the decrease in the return contributed
by A. Therefore, we are able to achieve lower risk with higher return.
How much can this be reduced depends
on the correlation between A and B also. You can see that the diversification
is the most significant when r = -1.
In any market, there are finite number of equities (though a lot!), so by
figuring out the return and risk of each equity and correlation between each
pair of equity, we can plot a tradeoff curve like this!
Now, we can easily form the
efficient frontier. The efficient frontier is just the points on this trade-off
curve that give the maximum return for a given risk.
Small correction to be made on Sigma Calculation ————————————————- B$4 instead of B4
SQRT((A6*B$3)^2 + (B6*C$3)^2 + 2* A6*B6*B$3*C$3*B4)
must be corrected to
SQRT((A6*B$3)^2 + (B6*C$3)^2 + 2* A6*B6*B$3*C$3*B$4)
Hi Somashekhar,
Do you mean when the video reaches 03:50?
If so, what we used was
SQRT((A6*B$3)^2 + (B6*C$3)^2 + 2* A6*B6*B$3*C$3*$B$4)
i.e. $B$4 instead of B4. The reason we used $B$4 is because we have to fix the row and column.
For this part, it should be correct. Thanks for your comment!!
very useful explanation – the use of MS Excel is outstanding! Thanks!